Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 2.796289 3.280010 3.816503 4.454818 5.192747 6.018177 7.010643
2025-10-26 1.974232 2.599117 3.368876 4.383054 5.680024 7.278638 9.393699
2025-11-02 1.435953 2.085336 2.959336 4.213173 5.955849 8.280737 11.603736
2025-11-09 1.067992 1.689625 2.593042 3.987440 6.067743 9.034465 13.557725
2025-11-16 0.848891 1.448153 2.379601 3.911563 6.340854 10.008356 15.914975
2025-11-23 0.695900 1.270970 2.220550 3.873592 6.640653 11.033089 18.454968
2025-11-30 0.615869 1.195248 2.204622 4.051876 7.293966 12.670034 22.138996
2025-12-07 0.527676 1.085379 2.107886 4.069965 7.670583 13.890189 25.277063
2025-12-14 0.452138 0.982897 2.004235 4.053563 7.974744 15.011083 28.364350
2025-12-21 0.393036 0.900401 1.922323 4.060622 8.314855 16.223990 31.741137
2025-12-28 0.375714 0.901097 2.002239 4.391614 9.308209 18.731156 37.752282
2026-01-04 0.340146 0.854756 1.977691 4.505461 9.885928 20.516858 42.594901
2026-01-11 0.308660 0.813127 1.959589 4.637177 10.532632 22.539642 48.188349
2026-01-18 0.272567 0.753430 1.892275 4.652993 10.941952 24.145525 53.155730
2026-01-25 0.231492 0.672404 1.761780 4.504991 10.974187 24.980653 56.642348
2026-02-01 0.192530 0.588005 1.607713 4.275428 10.787969 25.326715 59.131375
2026-02-08 0.167250 0.535266 1.522539 4.198254 10.941720 26.424851 63.365603
2026-02-15 0.147264 0.493097 1.456927 4.159042 11.179244 27.734149 68.209580
2026-02-22 0.138941 0.484068 1.478570 4.350176 12.010321 30.496908 76.659336
2026-03-01 0.125180 0.454848 1.438854 4.369704 12.407195 32.278676 83.002704
2026-03-08 0.111869 0.423945 1.388718 4.352233 12.704889 33.853539 89.018727
2026-03-15 0.100899 0.398322 1.349585 4.359805 13.070382 35.634752 95.723326
2026-03-22 0.100317 0.409210 1.424350 4.713677 14.432870 40.069339 109.463927